5.4.2002	Photo By: Jeremy Lyverse
		Starlight Stable's Harlan's Holiday and jockey Edgar Prado warmed-up prior to running in the 128th running of the Kentucky Derby (GI) on May 4, 2002 in Louisville, Ky.

McPeek's Dilemma: Press On Or Time Off For Harlan's Holiday?
By, William F. Reed
May 10, 2002

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (May 10, 2002) - You're a horse trainer who thought you had a tremendous chance to win the Kentucky Derby (GI), yet, for some reason, your horse didn't run his race. So now your dilemma is this: Should you throw out the Derby and move on to the Preakness (GI)? Or is your horse telling you that he's tired, or overrated, and needs some time off to regroup?

That's the decision that trainer Kenny McPeek is pondering right now. Harlan's Holiday, the 6-1 co-favorite in the 128th Derby, finished seventh, more than 15 lengths behind the victorious War Emblem. He obviously wasn't the same horse that dominated his fields in the Florida Derby (GI) and Blue Grass Stakes (GI).

But why? How could a colt that had never finished worse than second in 10 career starts never even be in contention in the Derby? Was it that he didn't like the track or the raucous Derby mob? Or that jockey Edgar Prado made a mistake by holding him back instead of sending him after the front-running War Emblem? Or that he had some mental or physical problem?

Most likely, the answer is simply this: Strange things happen in the Derby because it's the race everyone wants most to win. American jockeys ride in 1 1/4-mile races so rarely that the riders sometimes go out of character. Aggressive jocks become conservative, and vice-versa. Their overwhelming desire to win is balanced by the numbing fear of making a mistake in the world's most-scrutinized race.

In 1957, Gallant Man lost the Derby because jockey Bill Shoemaker misjudged the finish line and raised briefly in the irons at the sixteenth-pole. In 1974, Little Current lost it because he and jockey Bobby Ussery became hopelessly trapped in the record 23-horse field. And in 1986, Rampage and jockey Pat Day lost it because Shoemaker and Ferdinand beat them to a hole on the rail.

Many that were disappointing in Louisville have redeemed themselves in Baltimore, a fact that must figure into McPeek's thinking. In 1967, for example, Damascus ran the worst race of his career in the Derby, finishing third to longshot Proud Clarion by four lengths, but rebounded to take the Preakness by 2 1/4-lengths.

In 1986, trainer Mel Stute recognized that the favored Snow Chief's 11th-place finish in the Derby was an aberration, so he sent him on to the Preakness, where he was rewarded with a four-length win.

After favored Hansel's dismal 10th-place finish in the 1991 Derby, trainer Frank Brothers was so disapppointed that he shipped the colt to Arlington Park instead of to the Preakness. However, a good workout and encouragment from trainer Jack Van Berg made Brothers change his mind. Hansel won in Baltimore by seven.

Holy Bull, favored in the 1994 Derby, stunned his fans with a shocking 12-place finish at Churchill Downs. Trainer Jimmy Croll passed both the Preakness and the Belmont, but Bull still won Horse-of-the-Year honors by capturing such prizes as the Florida Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Metropolitan Mile (GI), Haskell Invitational (GI), Travers (GI), and Woodward Stakes (GI).

Finally, favored Point Given finished a dull fifth to Monarchos in last year's Derby, but rebounded to win the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell and Travers on the way to earning Horse-of-the-Year honors for what became this year's War Emblem team - Prince Ahmed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, the owner, and trainer Bob Baffert.

Although Baffert is now saying that War Emblem is the best horse he has ever trained, including Derby winners Silver Charm (1997) and Real Quiet ('98), he could be playing head games with his rivals, in the hope of discouraging some to skip the Preakness.

If there's nothing physically wrong with Harlan's Holiday, and if he has maintained his zest for the fray, then he deserves a chance in the Preakness to become another Damascus, Snow Chief, Hansel, or Point Given. If he looks dull or sluggish, however, it might be better to give him a break until the Belmont on June 8.

There's no way Harlan's Holiday is as mediocre as he looked in the Derby. Maybe a change of scenery and a new track will do him some good. McPeek said the colt was "fine" after a workout on May 8 and that he was probably leaning toward going to the Preakness. A final decision will be made Monday (May 13) or Tuesday (May 14).

This is good news for the Ohio-bred colt's many fans. The Derby, the race McPeek wants most to win, is history for Harlan's Holiday, but the Preakness isn't exactly chopped liver as a consolation prize.

Native Kentuckian William F. "Billy" Reed has been a sports writer in various capacities for 42 years and has missed covering the Kentucky Derby a mere two times since 1966. He has been a high-profile sports writer in Kentucky for the Commonwealth's two largest daily newspapers, the Louisville Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader and was a national columnist for Sports Illustrated, covering among other sports, Thoroughbred horse racing and college basketball. Reed currently pens a column for the Louisville Sports Report , contrbiutes features to the Keeneland program and will be, among varied other assignments, filing Kentucky Derby installments on www.kentuckyderby.com.

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